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November 1, 2007 Official Discussion Forum Launch! |
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Cell Information Disclosed at ISSCC ISSCCThe ISSCC has come and gone. Significant new information about the Cell Processor was released by STI. Very Brief Summary of Disclosed Information
Undisclosed Information
Reading between the lines STI are working on the Cell at both 90 and 65 nm. The Cell may not go into volume production until that can be done at 65nm which means in the year 2006. 90 nm production may only be used to "study" the cell potential and develop software tools. They showed pictures of 300mm wafers with Cells on them. About 300 - 90nm Cell Chips fit on one wafer. The Fishkill Fab can process about 15,000 wafers / month which is about 54 million chips / year. If the Fab cost $3B and they want their money back in three years, that is $1B capital cost. That translates to $20 to $40 in Capital cost. Labor is probably about the same say $30. So direct costs are about $60 each x 3 which is the margein fortune 500\'s need, you are looking at $180 each chip. If sony puts 4 in each Playstation - Well that would make a $500 playstation a real bargan. It seems 65nm may be needed to make economics work. A 90 nm Cell PCI with one Cell chip could probably be sold for $500 to $1000 if we are able to tag onto Playstation economy of scale. If 90 nm production is really just part of the R&D trying to get 65 nm parts and software going, the price for 90 nm Cell chips could be anywhere from $1 to $10,000 depending on how IBM is feeling that day. We believe that a 65 nm Cell card with 4 cell chips could be sold for around $1000. So far these are just guesses. We have no such information at this time. Check back frequently for new information.
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